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J.J. Augsburger; Estimation of Average Rate of Enlargement of Choroidal and Ciliary Body Melanomas Using Age at Treatment Data . Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2003;44(13):2158.
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© ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)
Purpose: To estimate the average rate of enlargement of primary choroidal and ciliary body melanomas using age at treatment data. Methods: Retrospective study of 570 patients with a clinically diagnosed choroidal or ciliary body melanoma during the interval 1980 through 1995. Mean patient age and mean tumor dimensions (largest linear basal diameter [LBD], maximal thickness [TH], and largest linear tumor dimension [LTD]) were computed for all patients and for subgroups based on the assigned histopathologic melanoma cell type (spindle cell subgroup [n = 156] versus mixed cell subgroup [n = 311]) of their tumors. The mixed cell subgroup included patients with mixed cell melanomas, epithelioid cell melanomas, and necrotic melanomas. Scatter plots of age at treatment (x-axis) versus the evaluated tumor dimensions (y-axis) were prepared, and linear least squares regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the variables. R-squared values were computed as indicators of the strength of the plotted linear relationships. Results: The mean age at the time of enucleation in the entire patient group was 55.2 years, and the mean LBD, TH, and LTD were 12.7 mm, 7.5 mm, and 12.7 mm respectively. Scatter plots revealed a strong linear relationship between age at treatment and all three of the evaluated tumor dimensions (R-squared > 0.95 for all comparisons) in the complete patient group. The predicted ages of patients with a tumor of LTD = 7 mm, 10 mm, and 15 mm were 48.9 years, 52.1 years, and 57.4 years, respectively. Surprisingly, the rate of enlargement of spindle cell melanomas estimated by this method was faster than the rate of enlargement of mixed cell melanomas. The average time it took for a spindle cell melanoma to grow from LTD = 10 mm to LTD = 15 mm was 3.6 years, while that for a mixed cell melanoma to grow the same amount was 5.7 years. Conclusions: These results indicate that the average choroidal or ciliary body melanoma takes 3.2 years to grow from LTD = 7 mm to LTD = 10 mm and 5.3 years to grow from LTD = 10 mm to LTD = 15 mm. The finding of a faster estimated rate of growth of spindle cell tumors by this method is surprising, but this result is consistent with previously published work on this topic.
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