September 2016
Volume 57, Issue 12
Open Access
ARVO Annual Meeting Abstract  |   September 2016
Prediction of Future Spherical Equivalent Refraction in Children using the Longitudinal Data from the Guangzhou Twins Eye
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • Jing Xie
    Ophthalmology and Vision Science, Centre for Eye Research Australia, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • Yanxian Chen
    Sun Yat-sen University, State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Guangzhou, China
  • Mingguang He
    Ophthalmology and Vision Science, Centre for Eye Research Australia, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
    Sun Yat-sen University, State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Guangzhou, China
  • Footnotes
    Commercial Relationships   Jing Xie, None; Yanxian Chen, None; Mingguang He, None
  • Footnotes
    Support  National Natural Science Foundation of China 81125007, the Fundamental Research Funds of the State Key Laboratory in Ophthalmolog
Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science September 2016, Vol.57, No Pagination Specified. doi:
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      Jing Xie, Yanxian Chen, Mingguang He; Prediction of Future Spherical Equivalent Refraction in Children using the Longitudinal Data from the Guangzhou Twins Eye. Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 201657(12):.

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      © 2017 Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology.

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Abstract

Purpose : The prediction of Spherical Equivalent (SE) Refraction development plays an important role in myopic prevention. In this paper, we characterize individual and sample average growth curves based on longitudinal data and further determine the best set of predictors for Spherical Equivalent (SE) in school-aged children effect from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University.

Methods : The first-born twins (n=1221) in Guangzhou Twin Eye Study with 10-year annual visit data (baseline age 7-15 years) were used to develop a mixed effect model. SE was calculated as the sum of sphere and 1/2 cylinder. We included baseline SE, age, indoor reading time, outdoor activity, and 39 candidate SNPS identified from the Consortium for Refractive Error and Myopia (CREAM) to develop the best model to predict the SE at 15 years old (endpoint SE). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was used to assess the performance by comparing the difference between the true SE and the predicted endpoint SE. Bootstrapping method was used for the internal validation of the prediction models.

Results : Of the factors evaluated, SE at baseline, age, age2, 4 SNPs were statistically associated with the risk for endpoint SE (all P < 0.05). Indoor reading time and outdoor activity were not associated. The mixed effects quadratic polynomial regression model with SE at baseline, age and age2 had better predictive ability in terms of SE absolute bias (-8.10e-11), RMSE (0.35), AIC (12708.97), BIC (12763.7) than the models with additional four SNPs (SE absolute bias (-2.48e-10), RMSE (0.63), AIC (1768.07), BIC (1736.48).

Conclusions : The proposed simple model using age, age2 and baseline SE can produce highly accurate prediction on the SE at adulthood whereas susceptible SNPs are statistically significantly associated but do not provide further improvement on the prediction.

This is an abstract that was submitted for the 2016 ARVO Annual Meeting, held in Seattle, Wash., May 1-5, 2016.

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