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DAYEONG KIM, Jeong Hun Bae, Su Jeong Song; Five-Year Incidence and Risk Prediction for Idiopathic Epiretinal Membranes in a Korean Population. Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2016;57(12):2058.
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© ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)
To evaluate the incidence of idiopathic epiretinal membranes (ERM) in a large population-based cohort of Korean adults, and to suggest the risk prediction model for idiopathic ERM.
A retrospective cohort study of 2152 participants 50 years of age or older in a health screening program. All participants underwent detailed ophthalmic and systemic examinations in 2006, and were reexamined after 5 years. Data on medical history, medication use, and health behaviors were collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Epiretinal membranes were diagnosed with fundus photographs at baseline and 5-year follow-up, and the incidence of ERM was determined as the presence of ERM in either eye with no preexisting lesion at baseline. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the multivariate models for the prediction of ERM.
Epiretinal membranes newly developed in 82 of 2152 participants who had no previous ERM in either eye at baseline (3.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0−4.6). Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that factors related to the development of ERM were age (60−69 years) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.695, 95% CI 1.060−2.708) and serum triglyceride levels (aOR 1.003, 95% CI 1.000−1.006) after adjustment for confounding factors. The highest AUC was 0.66 (95% CI 0.58−0.74) with a model including age, systolic blood pressure, serum triglyceride and creatinine levels, smoking, and alcohol intake. The AUC of this model was 0.74 (95% CI 0.66−0.81) in the validation samples.
Our results suggest that age and serum triglyceride levels may affect the development of idiopathic ERM. Our robust prediction model for ERM could provide a personalized risk profile in regular clinical settings.
This is an abstract that was submitted for the 2016 ARVO Annual Meeting, held in Seattle, Wash., May 1-5, 2016.
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