In this population cohort of those aged 40 years and more, 38 (2.39%) of the cohort of 1590 who had normal findings in a baseline eye examination had vision loss (visual field loss or BCVA < 6/12) develop over 5 years. Of the 38 who had a change in vision, the change had been noticed in 24 (63%). This leaves only 14 (0.88%) of the whole cohort who had unrecognized vision loss develop in this 5-year period. These are the target group that a routine screening program would be designed to detect.
Obviously, people with established eye disease or decreased vision should have ongoing care according to their specific conditions and individual needs. Guidelines for the frequency of these examinations are often set down in evidence-based or consensus-based guidelines, of which the American Academy of Ophthalmology Preferred Practice guidelines are an example.
22 25 In the present study, we did not examine this issue, and the results should not be misinterpreted to imply any change in the recommended frequency of reexamination of patients with established eye disease. Of the 2529 people in this population-based study, 813 (32%) participants were in the ongoing-care category.
Similarly, people who notice a change in their vision are universally counseled to seek an eye examination without delay. In our study, 1.5% of our participants were in this category, and 75% of those had been examined.
We were particularly interested in the number of people who had normal baseline eye examination results and had asymptomatic and unrecognized vision loss. Presumably, these are the people whom a mandated frequency of routine eye examinations is designed to benefit, because those with presenting eye disease should be given a specific time for reexamination, and those with symptomatic incident vision loss should be seen when the vision loss is first noted. As it turns out, only 8 to 14 of 1590 had reduced vision over the 5-year period.
This raised the question of how often people who have been found to have normal vision should be advised to have a routine eye examination. Should it be every year, every 2 years, or every 5 years? The cost benefits of routine eye examinations may vary greatly in different jurisdictions according to the cost of the eye examination and the costs and impact of vision loss. Clearly, however, eye health promotion messages should target those who notice a change in vision, those with diabetes, and those who have a family history of eye disease.
20
The strengths of this study include its population-based, prospective design; its use of standardized methods; and the performance of a comprehensive ophthalmic examination at each time point. Its weaknesses include the lack of objective data about the timing of changes that occurred between the baseline and follow-up examinations and the unknown status of those who died or were not reexamined. Although the overall number enrolled was large and the estimates robust, the number losing vision was still quite small, as was the number of the most elderly who had normal baseline examination findings. This results in large confidence intervals, especially in the elderly. In this study, we did not try to perform a comprehensive health economic analysis of the preferred frequency of routine eye examinations, because that would vary greatly with the costs involved in any particular region or situation. Rather, we examined the incidence of vision loss, so that it may be taken into account when others formulate their recommendations.