The difficulty of using a single parameter, tear osmolarity, to diagnose KCS lies in the overlap of levels of this parameter in normal and dry eyes
(Fig. 1) , which makes the choice of a referent, or a cutoff, difficult. Farris
34 observed in his study that a significant overlap of values occurred between 293 and 320 mOsmol/L. This is reflected in the pooled analysis of all the data from
Table 1and is in spite of the highly significant difference between the sample means and the wide separation of the 95% CI for the estimates of these means
(Fig. 1) . Unfortunately, it is in the range of 290 to 320 mOsmol/L that the determination must be made as to whether the osmolarity of a tear sample is abnormal. Gilbard et al.
5 chose 312 mOsmol/L as a osmolarity referent for KCS on the basis of maximizing diagnosis and avoiding underdiagnosis. This value gave a sensitivity of 94.7% and a specificity of 93.7% in the determination of dry eye against diagnosis by a combination of dry eye tests.
5 However, the original selection criteria for these subjects had included osmolarity. This introduced a selection bias into the study
42 and contributed to the high sensitivity demonstrated by Gilbard et al.
5 Also the sensitivity and specificity of the referent in the study by Gilbard et al. was not tested in an independent patient sample.
In the present study, we considered other approaches to determining an osmolarity referent for KCS and its effectiveness in the diagnosis of dry eye. A referent was derived from the intercept of the distribution curves for normal and dry eyes, and from the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of the data. The derived referent of 316 mOsmol/L classified 41% of dry eyes as normal in the independent sample. An improvement in identification of dry eye in this sample of subjects can be achieved by decreasing the referent for hyperosmolarity
(Table 3)to the 312 mOsmol/L suggested by Gilbard et al.
5 and Farris et al.
3 This change improves the sensitivity and reduces the false-negative rate, but the specificity and overall accuracy decline significantly. Increasing the referent’s value maximizes accuracy (Craig JP, et al.
IOVS 1995;36:ARVO Abstract 4823), but leads to misdiagnosis of almost half of KCS subjects as normal
(Table 3) . Therefore, the choice of different referents for diagnosis of KCS by osmolarity changes the relative of sensitivity and specificity
(Table 3) . The choice will also be influenced by physiological factors (the osmolarity at which cell damage occurs
43 ). In the case of potentially fatal conditions, high sensitivity is required in diagnosis, but for conditions such as dry eye with chronic, long-term morbidity, high specificity would be preferred, to avoid increasing burdens on healthcare delivery systems.
Another problem in considering the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive ability of any single test, or set of diagnostic criteria in dry eye diagnosis, is that these parameters are affected by the manner in which they are obtained and the population being diagnosed. The population effect is due to the multiple etiologies of the disease and the criteria used to define dry eye in the test sample. These effects are obviated when the samples are large, as in the meta-analysis in this study, but may have affected the diagnostic efficacy of a test or tests applied to the (smaller) number of patients in the Glasgow sample. In most reports (Craig JP, et al.
IOVS 1995;36:ARVO Abstract 4823)
5 26 44 the effectiveness of a test or tests is calculated by using the criteria on the population from which the referent was originally derived; thus overestimating effectiveness when applied to the diagnosis of future cases. This overestimate is compounded if the measurement is one of the criteria in the diagnosis of the disease.
5 26 42 Ideally, in determining the utility of a measurement in the diagnosis of disease, a referent, or cutoff, for the disease should be developed on an investigational group of subjects and
then tested successively on an independent sample of subjects. This gives a better estimate of its utility in diagnosis in a general population of subjects.
In
Table 3the effectiveness of osmolarity as a diagnostic test for KCS is compared with several other dry eye tests, both individually and in combination, as reported by other investigators.
3 5 26 44 45 46 47 When comparing individual test results, the greatest accuracy appears to be for the lysozyme diffusion test of van Bijsterveld,
45 but it is probable that this test was administered to a severely affected population,
26 leading to spectrum bias and an overestimate of sensitivity in the results reported.
42 This population would not be typical of a general population in which differential diagnosis is normally required. Nelson and Wright
47 report high sensitivity with impression cytology, and, although this is a test involving one technique, it requires a series of criteria to be met for diagnosis. Farris
26 has questioned the 100% sensitivity level reported for this test, as series tests are normally more specific than sensitive.
Osmolarity as a single test of tear physiology offers the ability to define and differentiate KCS and “normal” subjects with a relatively high degree of accuracy (90%) for referents in the range between 312 and 322 mOsmol/L
(Table 3) . A level of 316 mOsmol/L gives high sensitivity, specificity, and predictive accuracy, in the situation where it is applied to diagnosis of subjects in the population from which it was derived (
Table 3 , meta-analysis samples). It has overall accuracy comparable to the results reported by Farris et al.
3 and Gilbard et al.
5 but lower sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of positive and negative tests. However, in the studies by Gilbard et al. and Farris et al.
3 5 it must be remembered that osmolarity was an original criteria in patient selection for the osmolarity referent determination. In other comparisons of the effectiveness of diagnosis of single tests for KCS in the population from which referents were derived, the osmolarity of 316 mOsmol/L compares very favorably in sensitivity, specificity, predictive ability, and overall accuracy
(Table 3) .
Farris
26 has taken the data reported by Goren and Goren
44 to compare the effectiveness of individual tests, as well as to describe their effect when used in combination, either in parallel or in series, in diagnosis (reproduced in
Table 3 ). Tests in parallel, increase sensitivity at the expense of specificity and in series, the reverse applies.
26 The highest sensitivity and specificity are obtained for a combination, in parallel, of tear osmolarity with Schirmer strip wetting and in series, for osmolarity and the Lactoplate test
(Table 3) . As all these sensitivities and specificities are obtained with a test or tests applied to the patient samples from which the referents were derived, the single osmolarity test value of 316 mOsmol/L was assessed for diagnostic efficacy in the population from which it was derived. In this application, osmolarity alone gives a better overall accuracy than the best parallel combination tests, but the false negative rate of 31% with the single test was not as low as that of the parallel combination. This benefit is offset by the parallel combination offering only 51% predictive accuracy in a positive test.
Another statistical technique which may offer improved performance when using combination of tests in the diagnosis of dry eye disease is the discriminant function analysis.
48 49 This approach has been adopted by Craig and Tomlinson (
IOVS 1995;36:ARVO Abstract 4823) in dry eye diagnosis, giving a sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 87% when applied to the sample from which the discriminant function was derived. Discriminant function analysis incorporating multiple dry eye parameters also needs to be tested in independent patient samples.
The measurement of tear film osmolarity arguably offers the best means of capturing, in a single parameter, the balance of input and output of the lacrimal system. It is clear from the comparison of the diagnostic efficiency of various tests for KCS, used singly or in combination, that osmolarity provides a powerful tool in the diagnosis of KCS and has the potential to be accepted as a gold standard for the disease. The advent of new technology, making clinical testing of this feature of tear physiology simple, practical, and inexpensive could provide an impetus to its adoption in the diagnosis of KCS.