Figure 1 represents a conceptual schematic of the relationship between visual function and longevity in various scenarios of chronic glaucoma. It is apparent that a faster rate of disease will cross a threshold to a level of visual disability earlier in one's lifetime. A corollary of this would be that if the rate of disease is slow, some patients may do quite well without treatment, and will live their entire lives free from visual disability. There is a large body of clinical trial data demonstrating that early intervention is more effective at slowing the rate of progression than late intervention.
27,28 When this is applied to the schematic with respect to “fast progressors,” one can see that early intervention has a chance of keeping patients with a fast-paced disease from becoming visually disabled, even with long longevity. This becomes an important concept given the aging population and the imminent explosion of the proportion of older individuals in our population.
29
Estimates of the rate at which individuals deteriorate help direct treatment to the right patients at the right time. This also allows us to avoid the artificial dichotomy of glaucoma patients being either “stable” or “worse”; in reality, all patients are getting worse, but at different rates. We should also accept that the functional and structural scales with which rates are measured are not synchronous, nor are they linear. A considerable body of clinical research has been devoted to the most appropriate way to measure the rates of visual field loss in glaucoma. These approaches are largely confounded by (1) the high level of intertest variability inherent in psychophysical measurements; (2) the limitations of the sensitivity and specificity of the technique; (3) a low signal-to-noise ratio; (4) the requirement to perform multiple tests to reduce the noise and make the signal detectable; (5) the requirement for confirmatory tests; (6) the lack of a “gold standard”; and (7) the slow course of the disease, which may progress over years or decades.
30
Regressions of visual field thresholds over time, in either a pointwise, cluster, or global fashion, have been used. The most frequently applied thus far, and the simplest, is a linear model. Evidence suggests, however, that a linear model may not be the best for all patients.
31 A recent approach uses a pointwise exponential regression and isolates fast and slow components of visual field decay in glaucoma.
32 Such an approach can be used to identify patients who are progressing very quickly, and can be used to predict patterns of future visual field loss within appropriate confidence intervals. This approach has been shown to be effective across a wide range of disease severity and can identify “rapid progressors” for appropriately aggressive treatment.
31 Figure 2 shows an example of this approach applied to a patient having many visual fields over a period of nine years. While the superior paracentral area of the visual field is getting worse very quickly (at the rate of approximately 30% per year), the remainder of the field is quite stable and shows essentially no damage. This is a patient who should be classified as a fast progressor, given the dramatic loss in near-central vision with great impact on quality of life. Such focal but important worsening of visual function can be missed by inspection of global indices such as MD or VFI alone because of their inherent lack of sensitivity to localized defects.
33 A search for baseline prognostic factors that can predict which patients are at
highest risk for rapid visual deterioration is in progress. Preliminary results suggest that age, and measures of underlying damage such as the severity of visual field loss and the vertical cup-to-disc ratio, are significant and important prognostic factors (Lee J, Caprioli J, Coleman A, et al., unpublished data, 2008).