This study was undertaken to assess replication of recent GWAS hits from a study by Lu et al.
21 that suggested an association of six loci with KC. However, in the present study no significant association was evident for four of the SNPs reported by Lu et al. Meta-analysis of previously published studies yielded genome-wide significant evidence of an association for rs1324183 (
Supplementary Fig. S1), firmly establishing it as a KC risk variant. Most important, we replicated the surprising effect of the direction of the
A allele at rs9938149 reported by Lu et al. as being associated with increased risk of KC. In their article, they indicated that the
A allele was associated with increased CCT, which is perhaps counterintuitive because it is expected that this allele would be associated with corneal thinning, as found in KC. Lu et al. suggested that the finding of a different effect direction relative to that proposed by epidemiological prediction may either reflect a false-positive association or a genuine pleiotropic action of a gene on diseases. Our data suggest that this is not a false-positive association but acts through another, as yet unknown, pleiotropic role.
Our results suggested that these two SNPs confer only a modest increase in the risk (OR of 1.68 for rs1324183 and OR of 1.47 for rs9938149) of KC. When considered together, the six SNPs identified as being significantly associated with KC in the study by Lu et al.
21 explain approximately 2% of the variance of CCT.
Progressive corneal thinning of the cornea is a well-known feature of the pathophysiology of KC.
30 We (Sahebjada S, Chan E, Daniell M, Baird PN, unpublished data, 2013) and Emre et al.
31 have shown that progressive corneal thinning is an indicator of the progression of KC. Because KC is a disease characterized by extreme corneal curvature, we also assessed the association of the five genotyped SNPs with this quantitative trait. The estimates of the effect of an allele on corneal curvature at any of the tested SNPs were small (β [SE] range, −0.5 to 0.5 [0.3 to 0.4]). Such small effects would explain less than 1% of the variance in corneal curvature. Based on a power calculation, our study has greater than 80% power to detect variants explaining 1% of trait variance. Therefore, the results of the present study suggest that the SNPs rs1324183 and rs9938149 are associated with risk of KC, and the effect most likely acts via a non–corneal curvature route.
Our sample size is smaller than that in the study by Lu et al.,
21 and this is reflected in the 95% CIs in
Supplementary Figure S1. Although our study has limited power to show significant effects for the six loci, all loci have 95% CIs that overlap between each data set, with some loci significant (
P < 0.05) in our study alone. Based on a power calculation, our study has 43% to 80% power to detect ORs in the range of 1.25 to 1.60 found by Lu et al.
Given that we present a well-defined clinical phenotype and cohort of homogeneous ethnicity, why is it that our results differ from those of the equally robust study by Lu et al.
21 ? We compared findings from the present study with those by Lu et al. using a series of forest plots (
Supplementary Fig. S1). The significantly replicated SNP rs1324183 was positively associated with the risk allele in our cohort (OR, 1.68) and in the same direction but of greater magnitude compared with a South Australian (SA) cohort and the US cohort used by Lu et al. and the meta-analysis (each with an OR of 1.33). The second significantly replicated SNP rs9938149 was positively associated with the risk allele in our cohort (OR, 1.47) and in the same direction but of greater magnitude compared with the SA cohort (OR, 1.19) and the meta-analysis (OR, 1.25) but was similar to that of the US cohort (OR, 1.52) (
Supplementary Fig. S1). The other three genotyped SNPs showed effects in the same direction as previous data but with 95% CIs that included both 1.00 and the ORs in previous investigations.
A recent study by Li et al.
32 assessed an association between the
COL5A1 variant (21 SNPs located within and near the gene) and KC. A Caucasian case-control cohort of 222 patients with KC and 3324 control subjects was selected as the discovery panel. An independent case-control panel of 304 cases and 518 controls and a family panel of 186 individuals were used for replication of genotyping and association. Twenty-one SNPs located within and near
COL5A1 were genotyped, of which SNPs rs1536482 and rs7044529 were common to our study and the study by Lu et al.
21 Li et al.
32 showed that the SNPs rs1536482 (
P = 6.5 × 10
−3) and rs7044529 (
P = 7.4 × 10
−3) were significantly associated with KC in the discovery cohort. The SNP rs1536482 was replicated in the second case-control sample (
P = 0.02), and the SNP rs7044529 was replicated in a KC family panel (
P = 0.03). Meta-analysis significance levels were
P = 1.5 × 10
−4 (OR, 1.30) for rs1536482 and
P = 2.9 × 10
−3 (OR, 1.39) for rs7044529 in the KC cohorts. After Bonferroni correction, only the association of SNP rs1536482 remained significant (
P = 6.5 × 10
−3) (
Supplementary Fig. S2). For the SNPs rs4894535 (in the
FNDC3B gene) and rs2721051 (in the
FOXO1 gene), an association was detected in both the SA and US cohorts in the study by Lu et al.
21 In our study, SNP rs4894535 was not included in the analysis because of its low genotyping call rate. The SNP rs2721051 was estimated to have an OR similar to that previously reported by Lu et al., but in our study it was only borderline significant (
P = 0.057).
We found no association of SNPs rs1536483 and rs7044529, previously associated with KC in a GWAS,
21 in the present independent cohort. However, we were able to replicate an association of rs1324183 and rs9938149 with KC in our cohort. The SNP rs2721051 demonstrated an effect size similar to that in previous investigations but did not achieve significance based on our data alone. Our results also suggest that there is unlikely to be a strong association between the five KC SNPs and corneal curvature. Therefore, the SNPs thus far identified and replicated are of moderate effect size. In addition, these SNPs explain only a small percentage of the variance of KC, so the genetic influences on KC are likely complex and many.