Of course, the interpretation of whether the MSTP and K award programs are a success or a failure depends upon what you want to achieve. Do we focus on the 4-fold increase in the probability of getting R01 funding that having had a K award confers, or do we succumb to the negativity that a K award confers only a modest advantage to clinician-scientists in obtaining R01 funding (28% vs. 18% for all comers, including PhD scientists)
6 ? And, as Ambati and Cahoon state, the shortage appears to be worsening with time.
4 They highlight the 2006 to 2010 NEI cohort that has thus far had only one of 28 awardees obtain R01 funding
3 as evidence that the K system is failing. We propose alternate explanations for the significant dearth of R01 funding in this cohort. First, this dataset is likely incomplete, given that the average time from K to R01 has been 6.0 (K08) and 4.4 (K23) years.
5 Thus many in the group have not had adequate time to obtain an R01 given the long timeline for K to R01 conversion. The second and most obvious explanation is the precipitous decline in successful new R01 funding NIH-wide, from a high of 25% in 2000 to the current rate of 14% in 2013.
7 Lastly, the competition with established investigators who have extended their careers has also impacted the ability of young scientists to obtain funding. Between 1980 and 2010, the percentage of R01 grants held by investigators under 36 years of age dropped by more than 4-fold (>16% to 3%) while at the same time the proportion of R01s held by those over 65 increased ∼12-fold (<1% to 6%), such that retirement-age investigators now hold twice as many grants as those under 36.
8 This protracted timeline for obtaining R01 funding jeopardizes young investigators in a specialty where there are substantial financial pressures, on both the investigators and the institutions that employ them, to shift their efforts into more lucrative endeavors.