June 2013
Volume 54, Issue 15
ARVO Annual Meeting Abstract  |   June 2013
Predicting the onset of myopia: a retrospective study
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • Bjorn Drobe
    R&D Singapore, Essilor International, Singapore, Singapore
  • Roger de Saint-André
    Sarl Roger de Saint-André, Gaillac, France
    Centre d’Optométrie, Université Paris-Sud (Paris 11), Faculté des Sciences d’Orsay, Les Ulis, France
  • Footnotes
    Commercial Relationships Bjorn Drobe, Essilor Int. (E); Roger de Saint-André, None
  • Footnotes
    Support None
Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science June 2013, Vol.54, 5693. doi:
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      Bjorn Drobe, Roger de Saint-André; Predicting the onset of myopia: a retrospective study. Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2013;54(15):5693.

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      © ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)

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Purpose: To propose a predictive model of myopia onset based on fulfilling a percentage of risk criteria out of several standard optometric tests.

Methods: A retrospective study on patient files of a single private practice optometrist in the south-west of France (Gaillac). Patients between 6 and 19 years with initial subjective spherical equivalent (SE) of [0.00; +0.75] D in both eyes were selected. 73 patients in which SE remained within [0.00; +0.75] D for at least 2 years were classified as stable emmetropes (E); 52 patients in which SE became strictly negative within less than 2 years were classified as pre-myopes (PM). Values of standard optometric tests were compared between PM and E using Student’s t-test. For values showing statistically significant differences (p<0.05), risk criteria were determined as thresholds with Youden’s index J > 0.40. For monocular tests, right eye values were used.

Results: 23 tests showed significant differences between PM and E, out of which 8 reached J > 0.40: subjective binocular refraction ≤ 0.25 D (p < 0.001, J = 0.44), first perceived blur at distance ≤ 0.50 D (p < 0.001, J = 0.43), distance NRA ≤ +1.00 (p < 0.001, J = 0.45), distance retinoscopy ≤ 0.00 D (p < 0.001, J = 0.42), quantitative direct ophthalmoscopy ≤ -0.50 D (p < 0.001, J = 0.46), monocular subjective refraction ≤ 0.00 D (p < 0.001, J = 0.41), distance binocular red-green duochrome ≤ +0.25 D (p<0.001, J = 0.43) and pupil diameter measured in low luminance ≥ 5.5 mm (p = 0.049, J = 0.45). ROC curve analysis showed that fulfilling at least 60% of those risk criteria identified PMs with a sensitivity of 0.83 and a specificity of 0.74, which was higher than for each test taken separately.

Conclusions: Using a percentage of fulfilled risk criteria among 8 standard optometric tests allowed a better detection of the onset of myopia than through criteria taken separately.

Keywords: 605 myopia • 464 clinical (human) or epidemiologic studies: risk factor assessment  

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