Abstract
Natural history data from the Diabetic Retinopathy Study were examined by multivariate methods to determine which baseline characteristics could predict the occurrence of severe visual loss (SVL) in eyes originally assigned to no treatment. The presence and extent of new blood vessels on the optic disc (NVD) had the strongest association with SVL. Several other ocular characteristics also were strongly associated with visual outcome. In the absence of NVD at baseline, the degree of intraretinal hemorrhages and microaneurysms (HMA) had the strongest association with development of SVL. Macular edema was a factor in determining visual loss to 20/200 but not SVL (less than 5/200). Among systemic characteristics, urinary protein was the best predictor of visual outcome, but none were as good as the major ocular variables.