There were 1747 children, with at least three visits, available for lens power calculations. At baseline, school children were from grades first to third, aged six to nine years (72.64% were aged seven or eight years), and 887 (50.8%) were male. The mean age at baseline was 7.94 ± 0.84 years and the SER was −0.41 ± 1.71 D. Compared with boys, girls had a significantly higher (less myopic) mean SER, greater corneal power, shorter AL and ACD, lower axial length/corneal radius ratio (AL/CR), and greater lens power, but there was no difference in lens thickness between sexes (
Table 1).
At baseline, unadjusted data showed that persistent myopes (PM) had lower mean lens power than emmetropes, but lens power in the newly developed myopes (NDM) was not statistically different from that of emmetropes. When adjusted for sex and age, both NDM and PM had significantly lower lens power than persistent emmetropes (PE) (
Table 2), although the difference between NDM and emmetropes was small. The NDM, although emmetropic at baseline, also had lower SER and greater AL than PE.
The changes in lens power with age in the different refractive groups are shown in
Figure 1. In all refractive groups, the fractional polynomial cruves
11 showed very similar reductions in lens power with age. The reductions were particularly marked over the age from 6 to around 10 years. After 10 years of age, the rate of loss of lens power decreased markedly. Interestingly, there was a greater loss of lens power in those who became myopic during the follow-up period, such that, although they began with a lens power that was similar to that of the PE, at the end of that period, their lens power was closer to that of the persistent myope group.
The correlations between refraction and ocular components at baseline are shown in
Table 3. As expected, SER was strongly correlated with AL, and even more strongly with the AL/CR ratio. In contrast, the positive correlation of SER with lens power was only moderate, as shown in
Figure 2A. The strongest correlation was seen for lens power and AL (
Table 2), and the correlation between lens power and AL/CR ratio was slightly lower. The correlation between lens power and thickness was positive (
Fig. 2B), showing that thinner lenses had lower lens power. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis with spherical equivalent refractive error as the dependent variable showed AL as the principal significant independent variable (
r 2 = 0.488), then corneal power (
r 2 = 0.286), lens power (
r 2 = 0.171), and anterior chamber depth (
r 2 = 0.038; all
P < 0.001). When lens power was treated as the dependent variable, AL was the principal significant factor (
r 2 = 0.498), followed by lens thickness (
r 2 = 0.099), and spherical equivalent (
r 2 = 0.065; all
P < 0.001).
With follow-up, the changes in lens power and lens thickness were similar in all groups, except for the NDM who showed greater decreases in lens thickness than the PE (
Table 4). NDM also had a significantly greater loss of lens power than persistent myopes (PM) (−0.34 D/year vs. −0.26 D/year,
P < 0.001, Bonferroni post hoc test;
Table 4). PM continued to lose lens power at a similar rate as the PE (
Fig. 1 and
Table 4). These changes, and the development of myopia over the follow-up period, produced some changes in the correlations between variables by the end of the study. In particular the correlations of SER with AL and with AL/CR increased (from −0.698 at baseline to −0.754 at follow-up, and from −0.865 to −0.891, respectively), while the correlation of SER and lens power decreased (from +0.302 to +0.214), as did the correlation of lens power with AL (from −0.706 to −0.639) and AL/CR ratio (from −0.601 to −0.530).
Three critical correlations are illustrated graphically in
Figure 3 (A–C). None of the relationships were completely linear, as illustrated by the fitting of both linear regression and loess plots to the figures. In the case of spherical equivalent versus AL (
Fig. 3A), spherical equivalent declined more rapidly with increasing AL at higher ALs. In the cases of lens power versus SER (
Fig. 3B) and lens power versus AL (
Fig. 3C), there appear to be slower rates of loss of lens power with myopic refractive error and longer ALs. We tested the hypothesis that, at ages 6 to 12 years, rapid progressors in the persistent myopic group could have higher rates of lens power loss, but did not find any significant difference in lens power loss between rapid and slow progressors (data not shown).