The population-attributable risk of these two
ABCA4 sequence variants has been estimated at 8% to 10%.
16 However, with an assumed relative risk of 5 and a carrier frequency of 0.95% in control subjects,
16 this value would be only 3.8%. This illustrates that, with risk factor frequencies as low as these, the estimated attributable risk is quite sensitive to very small changes in the assumed parameters. Although large sample sizes allow for the estimation of relative risks for exposures of small prevalence, we believe that a strategy of screening such large data sets for
ABCA4 variants would have to weigh the relatively high costs of this approach against the benefits. We have estimated the case–control sample size necessary for 80% power to detect an
ABCA4 effect on ARM risk. The frequency of potentially disease-associated variants has been consistently estimated to be no higher than 1% in a nonpatient population.
11 12 16 20 Because of uncertainty about the true effect size, we have assumed three plausible relative risk values for an
ABCA4 variant: 5, estimated for G1961E;
16 3, estimated for D2177N;
16 and 1.5, the lower confidence limit for G1961E.
16 Power calculations using commercial software (nQuery-Advisor; Statistical Solutions, Saugus, MA) and DSTPLAN (http://odin.mdacc.tmc.edu/anonftp; provided in the public domain by the Department of Bioinformatics M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, TX) indicate that approximately 600 (300 case–control pairs), 1,600, and 16,000 samples, respectively, would have to be tested to achieve 80% power, at the 5% significance level, for detecting these relative risks. The most definitive test would be sequencing of the entire gene, which, with an approximate cost of $10 per exon for a single forward and reverse reaction, would generate a total cost of $300,000, $800,000, and $8,000,000, respectively. A much more feasible study might employ commercial assays (e.g.,
TaqMan-based Assay-by-Design or Assay-by-Demand; Applied Biosystems, Inc.) to genotype only the two previously implicated variants. With an approximate cost of $1 per sample (reagents and labor) for each variant, the expense would amount to $1,200, $3,200, and $32,000, respectively.