First, the model does not predict a single curve, but rather it predicts that there will be a family of curves.
Figure 5shows the same data as in
Figure 2 , with the dashed curves representing the boundaries of a family of predicted curves. To understand how these boundaries were obtained, one must recall that the model assumes that the measure of RNFL thickness has two components, one,
s o T, which represents the thickness of the retinal axons associated with a given relative sensitivity,
T, and the other,
b, which is the residual RNFL thickness measured when all the axons are lost. This residual portion includes glial cells and perhaps limitations imposed by the algorithm that determines the RNFL layer. In individuals with normal visual sensitivity (
T = 1.0), the RNFL thickness is the sum of
s o +
b, where
s o is the thickness of the axon portion in the normal healthy eye. There is a wide range of values for (
s o +
b) as defined by the 95% confidence interval for normal RNFL thickness as shown by the green region in
Figure 4C . Assuming for the moment that
b is the same in different eyes, this confidence interval provides a range of normal (
s o +
b) values. (For the purposes of this example, the effects of age on
s o, and thus on the confidence interval, were not taken into consideration.) The upper and lower boundaries of the confidence interval each provide the parameter (
s o +
b) for a theoretical curve.
Figure 5shows the data from
Figure 2with the predicted curves associated with the upper and lower limits of (
s o +
b) estimated from the green region in
Figure 4E . In particular, the upper curve describes the predicted course of glaucomatous progression in a patient who started with a relatively large
s o, whereas the lower curve shows the predicted curve in a patient with an
s o that was relatively small when normal. Regardless of the initial RNFL thickness, all curves have the same common shape, meaning that there is a loss in SAP sensitivity that is proportional to RNFL thickness attributable to RGC axons. Note that the linear model, combined with the normal confidence interval, predicts that most of our data points should fall between these curves.