May 2006
Volume 47, Issue 13
ARVO Annual Meeting Abstract  |   May 2006
Monte Carlo Simulation of Random Clustering of Endophthalmitis Following Cataract Surgery
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • J.M. Sparrow
    Ophthalmology, Bristol Eye Hospital, Bristol, United Kingdom
  • Footnotes
    Commercial Relationships  J.M. Sparrow, None.
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    Support  None
Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science May 2006, Vol.47, 628. doi:
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      J.M. Sparrow; Monte Carlo Simulation of Random Clustering of Endophthalmitis Following Cataract Surgery . Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2006;47(13):628.

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      © ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)

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Introduction: : Endophthalmitis remains a serious and potentially blinding complication of cataract surgery with an overall incidence of ∼0.14% or 1 in 700 operations. Despite this knowledge of overall frequency healthcare providers find themselves confronted with clusters of cases where the appropriate level of response to the cluster is uncertain.

Purpose: : To illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo simulation models, the likelihood of random clustering of cases arising in units within a healthcare setting resembling the UK NHS and separately within the practices of individual surgeons.

Methods: : Simulation models were constructed within a programming language in which individual cataract operations were simulated with a 1 in 700 likelihood of each operation resulting in a ‘case of endophthalmitis’. Random clustering of ‘cases of endophthalmitis’ was observed in the models and ‘outbreaks’ were noted and tracked for various outbreak definitions.

Results: : The model outputs are presented graphically as the proportion of ‘simulated units’ affected by an ‘outbreak’ in a year and separately as the proportion of surgeons affected for a range of ‘outbreak definitions’, e.g. 2 cases in 300 or 5 cases in 2000 operations.

Conclusions: : These data presentations are easy to use and should facilitate a better understanding of shifts from endemic to epidemic rates of endophthalmitis with appropriate investigation of situations where a remediable common cause may exist. (Full manuscript in press: Eye 2006)

Keywords: clinical (human) or epidemiologic studies: outcomes/complications • endophthalmitis 

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