May 2006
Volume 47, Issue 13
ARVO Annual Meeting Abstract  |   May 2006
The OHTS/EGPS Prediction Model for POAG
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • M.A. Kass
    Ophthalmology, Washington Univ Sch of Med, St Louis, MO
  • The Ocular Hypertenstion Study Group
    Ophthalmology, Washington Univ Sch of Med, St Louis, MO
  • The European Glaucoma Prevention Study
    Ophthalmology, Washington Univ Sch of Med, St Louis, MO
  • Footnotes
    Commercial Relationships  M.A. Kass, Pfizer, F.
  • Footnotes
    Support  NIH Grants EY015498 , EY009307, EY09341, Merck Research Labaraories, Pfizer Incorporated and Research to Prevent Blindness
Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science May 2006, Vol.47, 3412. doi:
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      M.A. Kass, The Ocular Hypertenstion Study Group, The European Glaucoma Prevention Study; The OHTS/EGPS Prediction Model for POAG . Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2006;47(13):3412.

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      © ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)

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To describe the development of a prediction model for POAG from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) and the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS).


The study design of OHTS and EGPS were simialr including eligibility criteria, randomization, perimetric testing every 6 months,optic disc photography annually and masked assessment of POAG. The prediction model used only participants randomized to observation or placebo. Baseline IOP was defined as the mean of two eligibility measurements and the first measurement on/after randomization. Participants with pseudoexfoliation or pigmentary disperson were excluded. The prediction model was developed first in the OHTS observation group then replicated in the EGPS placebo group. Analyses of EGPS were repeated with/without participants with only one eye eligible and with/without participants with incomplete follow–up


Incidence of POAG was 12.6% (104 of 819) in OHTS observation group and 11.7% (61 of 522) in EGPS placebo group. The table reports univariate hazard ratios from preliminary analyses of baseline factors in the two studies.  


The hazard ratios from the two studies are generally similar. The prediction model appears robust and generalizeable.

Keywords: clinical (human) or epidemiologic studies: risk factor assessment • clinical (human) or epidemiologic studies: biostatistics/epidemiology methodology • clinical (human) or epidemiologic studies: treatment/prevention assessment/controlled clinical trials 

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