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David A Wilson, Monica Jong, Padmaja Sankaridurg, Timothy Fricke, Serge Resnikoff, Kovin Shunmugam Naidoo; A global generational shift in myopia. Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2016;57(12):2468. doi: https://doi.org/.
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© ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)
To identify generational changes in the prevalence of myopia between the years 2000 to 2050 for the purposes of eye care planning.
Current meta-data involving a systematic review of the prevalence of myopia and high myopia and estimated temporal trends from 2000 to 2050 using data published since 1995 were analyzed. The primary data were gathered into 5 year age groups from 0 to 100+, in urban or rural populations in each country, standardized to a definition of myopia of ≤−0.50D, projected to the year 2010, then meta-analyzed within Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Changes over time estimates were derived from regression analysis of published evidence to project to each decade 2000 to 2050. The age group 20 to 29 years was then compared with its parent generation, 50 to 59 years. The age group 30 to 39 years was also compared to its parent group of 60 to 69 years.
In the year 2000 the global prevalence of myopia for 20 to 29 year olds (37.7%) was 1.6 times the prevalence of the parental generation - 50 to 59 year olds (23.5%). In 2010 the ratio was 1.32 times (42.1%:32.0%), with the ratio predicted to drop to 1.1 times (45.3%:41.3%) in 2020 and settling at 1.02 times from 2030 to 2050. A similar trend is found if 30 to 39 year olds are compared to 60 to 69 year olds (1.41 times, 32.6%:23.1%, in 2000 and 0.98 times, 62.2%:63.6%, in 2050).
Previously studies in different countries have noted that there has been a high prevalence of myopia in children increasing significantly for those in their twenties. There is a generational shift in myopia with the prevalence of myopia being much lower in the parental generation in the year 2000 relative to their children. However, the ratio is much closer today and will reach parity by 2030, with high prevalence of myopia predicted for all ages over 20 years. Recognition of this trend will be important for public health and eye care planning and delivery.
This is an abstract that was submitted for the 2016 ARVO Annual Meeting, held in Seattle, Wash., May 1-5, 2016.
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