July 2019
Volume 60, Issue 9
Open Access
ARVO Annual Meeting Abstract  |   July 2019
A further increase of late age-related macular degeneration until 2050 in Europe – a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression
Author Affiliations & Notes
  • Jeany Qiuchen Li
    Ophthalmology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • Thomas Welchowski
    Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • Matthias Schmid
    Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • Frank G Holz
    Ophthalmology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • Robert P Finger
    Ophthalmology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • Footnotes
    Commercial Relationships   Jeany Li, Abbvie (R), TRB Chemedica (R); Thomas Welchowski, None; Matthias Schmid, None; Frank Holz, Acucela (C), Acucela (F), Acucela (R), Allergan (F), Allergan (R), Appelis (C), Appelis (R), Bayer (C), Bayer (F), Bayer (R), Bioeq/Formycon (F), Bioeq/Formycon (C), Boehringer-Ingelheim (C), CenterVue (F), Ellex (R), Geuder (C), Grayburg Vision (C), Grayburg Vision (R), Heidelberg Engineering (C), Heidelberg Engineering (F), Heidelberg Engineering (R), LinBioscience (C), Roche/Genentech (C), Roche/Genentech (F), Roche/Genentech (R); Robert Finger, Bayer (C), Ellex (C), Novartis (C), Novartis (F), Ophtea (C), RetinaImplant (C), Santen (C), Santhera (C)
  • Footnotes
    Support  None
Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science July 2019, Vol.60, 54. doi:https://doi.org/
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      Jeany Qiuchen Li, Thomas Welchowski, Matthias Schmid, Frank G Holz, Robert P Finger; A further increase of late age-related macular degeneration until 2050 in Europe – a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression. Invest. Ophthalmol. Vis. Sci. 2019;60(9):54. doi: https://doi.org/.

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      © ARVO (1962-2015); The Authors (2016-present)

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Abstract

Purpose : Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the main cause of visual impairment and blindness in industrialized countries. Because of population-ageing, a further increase in the number of affected persons is expected and current data are needed for healthcare resource planning. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of European prevalence and incidence data of late AMD and extrapolated our pooled estimates to the year 2050.

Methods : The systematic review for prevalence and incidence data for late AMD was based on the international MOOSE guideline. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed for examination years, countries, regions, and sex. The pooled prevalence estimates of any late AMD as well as the two main types, neovascular AMD (nAMD) and geographic atrophy (GA), were applied to Eurostat population data. Based on Eurostat population projection statistics, the pooled prevalence estimates were extrapolated to the year 2050.

Results : Twenty prevalence and 4 incidence studies were included. Our pooled prevalence estimate of any late AMD in Europeans 60 years and older was 2.3% (95%-CI: 1.6-3.2%). nAMD was 1.4 times more common than GA, with a prevalence of 1.3% (95%-CI: 0.9-2.0%) compared to 0.9% (95%-CI: 0.5-1.2%). Significant differences were seen in the meta-regression for age and countries, but not for time-trends, region and sex. In the meta-analysis of incidence, the pooled annual incidence of any late AMD was 1.4 per 1,000 individuals (95%-CI: 0.8-2.6). Incident AMD is estimated to increase from 400.000 EU inhabitants per year today to 700.000 per year in 2050. Overall, the number of EU inhabitants with any late AMD is expected to increase from 10 to 12 million until 2050.

Conclusions : We estimated that the total number of people in the EU with any late AMD will increase by 20% until 2050. Especially monitoring and treatment of people with advanced disease stages will require additional healthcare resources and thorough healthcare planning in the years and decades to come.

This abstract was presented at the 2019 ARVO Annual Meeting, held in Vancouver, Canada, April 28 - May 2, 2019.

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