Abstract
Purpose :
The prevalence of myopia has rapidly increased worldwide over the past few decades. Whether the rate of myopia progression has also increased during the same period is unknown. This study evaluated the temporal trend of myopia progression in children from 1980 to 2020.
Methods :
We reviewed data from 48 studies including 46 randomized controlled trials of myopia interventions and 2 large-scale observational cohort studies published between 1987 and 2023. Based on the enrolment year of the first subject, studies were grouped into six chronological periods: 1981-1994, 1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2020. Changes in spherical equivalent refractive error in untreated (control group) myopic children were analyzed as a function of the study duration by linear regression models. The slopes of the linear models were then compared across the six periods. To determine the potential influence of age and ethnicity on myopia progression trends, the mean age at enrolment of subjects was compared across years, and the rate of myopia progression was studied separately in predominately Asian and non-Asian studies.
Results :
Myopia progression data from 4207 children (age, 3 – 18 years; spherical equivalent refraction ≤ -0.50 D) were included in the analyses. The duration of the studies ranged from 12 to 84 months. Linear regression model fits explained 76-96% of the variance in the data and exhibited slopes of 0.48 to 0.60 D per year (Figure 1). A two-way analysis of variance showed that myopia progressed significantly with age (p < 0.0001), but there was no difference in the rate of myopia progression among the six time periods (p = 0.18). The mean age of enrolment of children across studies was not different over the years (p = 0.20). When data were categorized into Asian and non-Asian studies, no difference was found in the rates of myopia progression across the six time periods (Asian: p = 0.22, non-Asian: p = 0.14).
Conclusions :
The rate of myopia progression in children was similar over six chronological periods from 1980 to 2020. This finding suggests that, despite the rapid growth in myopia prevalence worldwide, myopia progression in children has remained relatively stable over the years.
This abstract was presented at the 2024 ARVO Annual Meeting, held in Seattle, WA, May 5-9, 2024.