We then used a piecewise linear mixed model to quantify the slope of SE development at the point of 15 years old. In nonmyopic children, the slope of refraction before 15 years (β2) was −0.19 (95% CI = −0.21 to −0.17) and −0.20 (95% CI =−0.21 to −0.18) D/year (
P = 0.270), the slope change at the point of 15 years (β3) was 0.16 (95% CI = 0.12 to 0.20) and 0.14 (95% CI = 0.11 to 0.18) D/year (
P = 0.270), and was −0.03 (95% CI = −0.06 to 0.01), and −0.06 (95% CI = −0.09 to −0.03) D/year (
P = 0.340) after 15 years old in the VHS and AHS groups, respectively. In already myopic children, the β2 was −0.52 (94% CI = −0.55 to −0.49) and −0.54 (95% CI = −0.56 to −0.52) D/year (
P = 0.500), β3 was 0.37 (95% CI = 0.34 to 0.41) and 0.32 (95% CI = 0.29 to 0.35) D/year (
P = 0.004), and was −0.15 (95% CI = −0.18 to −0.11), and −0.22 (95% CI = −0.24 to −0.19) D/year (
P < 0.001) after 15 years old in the VHS and AHS groups, respectively, see
Figure 2 and
Table 2. For the results of AL, in nonmyopic samples, the slope of AL before 15 years (β2) was 0.15 (95% CI = 0.14 to 0.16) and 0.17 (95% CI = 0.16 to 0.18) mm/year (
P = 0.060), the slope change at the point of 15 years (β3) was −0.12 (95% CI = −0.13 to −0.10) and −0.11 (95% CI = −0.12 to −0.10) mm/year (
P = 0.240), and was 0.03 (95% CI = 0.02 to 0.05), and 0.06 (95% CI = 0.05 to 0.08) mm/year (
P < 0.001) after 15 years old in the VHS and AHS groups, respectively. In already myopic samples, the β2 was 0.26 (94% CI = 0.25 to 0.28) and 0.27 (95% CI = 0.26 to 0.28) mm/year (
P = 0.080), β3 was −0.21 (95% CI = −0.22 to −0.19) and −0.17 (95% CI = −0.18 to −0.16) mm/year (
P < 0.001), and was 0.05 (95% CI = 0.04 to 0.07), and 0.11 (95% CI = 0.10 to 0.12) mm/year after 15 years old in the VHS and AHS groups, respectively, see
Table 2. Next, we plotted the fitted line divided at the age of 15 years (see
Figs. 2A,
2B). An obvious discontinuity was verified.