Challenges related to the design of clinical trials have the potential to impede the future development of novel, safe, and effective treatments for childhood myopia.
393 Research in myopia treatment space faces several challenges, including the ethical dilemma of withholding treatment to include a true placebo group, recruitment difficulties, and the likelihood of higher attrition in the placebo group due to the availability of proven treatments, selective withdrawal of fast progressors in the placebo group, thereby affecting efficacy outcomes, and the potential of participants seeking treatments outside of the trial.
394 Considering these challenges, a conventional placebo-controlled trial may no longer be feasible. As an alternative to the conventional randomized, controlled clinical trial, a recent commentary
394 outlined several strategies, such as a non-inferiority design with an approved drug or device as the control,
395 prediction of longer-term efficacy from short-term studies using initial control data as an input to progression models based on previous trials, the inclusion of age, sex, and ethnicity-matched virtual control groups based on previous data,
396 extrapolation of short-term control data to subsequent years based on population-specific proportional reduction in axial elongation,
397 and, finally, survival analysis to evaluate time-to-treatment-failure allowing participants to exit the trial after a certain threshold of progression.
398 Some of these strategies are not without limitations, however. For instance, determining efficacy using a virtual control is only feasible if progression can be reliably predicted based on prior data in a specific population. This is not always the case, as demonstrated by the progression rates in the control groups of DIMS and HALT lens trials. Despite similar age at enrollment (mean age = approximately 10 years) and ethnicity, these two control groups progressed at contrasting rates, with a considerably faster progression in the HALT lens trial (−1.46 D and 0.69 mm over 2 years) than in the DIMS trial (−0.85 D and 0.55 mm over 2 years).